hive-143901 community on Hive

Jobs Market

steemychicken1 — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 19:49:00 GMT

On Friday, the US jobs report came out and... nobody expected it to look like this.

Analysts were expecting 84,000 new jobs for September. We got 29,000. Yes. JUST 29,000.

Normally, this should have scared the markets. Instead, stocks rose. And the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high during the day.

“How can bad news be good news?” you may be wondering. The answer lies with the Fed. And by the end, we'll see how AI is already changing jobs on Wall Street.

THE LABOR MARKET

The 29,000 new jobs in September are well below the average of the past 12 months, which was 45,000 per month.

And unemployment rose to 4.2%, from 4.1%.

And as if that wasn't enough, we also had revisions. July, which initially showed +21,000 jobs, was revised to MINUS 10,000. August fell from 162,000 to 133,000. In total, that's 60,000 fewer jobs than we previously thought.

In fact, Thomas Simons of Jefferies says that the “strong” August was simply a rebound after a very weak June and July.

“And where did the few jobs we did get come from?” you may be wondering. Mainly healthcare (+17,000), construction (+11,000), and manufacturing (+9,000). On the other hand, government lost 17,000 jobs, temporary employment lost 11,000, information technology lost 10,000, and financial services lost 7,000.

Of course, there is a big “but.” The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed 406,000 more employed people and 485,000 more people in the labor force.

So what does that mean? It means unemployment rose mainly because more people entered the labor market looking for work.

The problem is wages. They rose just 0.1% during the month and 3% over the year, the lowest increase since May 2021. And as Heather Long of Navy Federal puts it, this increase is “completely wiped out by inflation.”

THE FED'S DILEMMA

And this is exactly where the Fed comes into play. Because there is something many people haven't realized. The Fed is not cutting interest rates right now. It's RAISING them. In September, it raised them by 0.25%.

“And why is it raising them?” you may be wondering. Because inflation persists. Core inflation is at 3%, while the target is 2%. And Fed officials see it as a greater threat than the labor market.

In simple terms, a weaker labor market means fewer reasons for another rate hike. That's why the probability of rates remaining unchanged at the October 27-28 meeting jumped to 82.8%.

Simons put it clearly: these numbers are “the final nail in the coffin” for an October hike.

But pay attention. This does not mean the rate hikes are over. Markets now give a 67.3% probability of another 0.25% hike in December. And Bill Adams of Fifth Third says the numbers were not weak enough to shift the Fed's focus away from inflation. September inflation data, gasoline prices, and geopolitical developments will matter much more.

HOW THE MARKETS REACTED

And now let's get to the markets. But the real drama these days isn't happening in stocks. It's happening in bonds.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose above 5.3%, its highest level since 2002. And it was on track for an eighth consecutive week of gains.

So the weak numbers came as a relief. Yields fell immediately after the announcement. But then... they turned higher again. And they pulled stocks down from the day's highs.

Even so, the day ended positively. The Dow Jones rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.2%, with technology stocks taking center stage.

“So what did the market ultimately want?” you may be wondering.

I'll put it very simply: the market wanted “neither too hot nor too cold.”

AI IS CHANGING JOBS

And this brings us to the most interesting part. Remember the 10,000 jobs lost in information technology? They disappeared at a time when fears about AI are growing.

At the same time, specialized contractors for nonresidential construction added 12,000 jobs, probably thanks to the boom in construction for AI infrastructure.

“So does AI destroy jobs or create them?” you may be wondering.

The truth is that before it takes jobs away, it appears to be creating them first. And Wall Street is the best example.

Job postings for AI positions at banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Capital One increased 49% compared with 2025. They reached 139,819.

And the most sought-after skill? AI agent orchestration, with postings surging 1,721%.

What exactly is that? In very simple terms, a bank creates a team of “digital employees.” One checks the data, another analyzes a document, and a third checks whether everything complies with the rules. And someone has to make them work together.

But that's not all. Demand is also increasing for people who set boundaries around all of this. Mentions of “responsible AI” rose 657%.

Read the full post

Taking Another Look at Boeing

borsengelaber — Sat, 03 Oct 2026 04:08:30 GMT

Boeing’s Rough Ride

Recently, I flew on a Boeing 737-800, which reminded me to take a look at the $BA chart.

Boeing is one of the world’s leading aircraft manufacturers, but the company has been struggling for years. Since the COVID crash, when the stock price fell massively, $BA has mostly been chopping sideways without a meaningful recovery.

The past few years have certainly been a tough ride for Boeing investors.

Do you guys own any $BA stock? Personally, I’m not invested in airlines or aircraft manufacturers. I find the sector too volatile for my taste. Flying Boeing is something different than owning its shares.

Gemini Argo

steemychicken1 — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 18:14:00 GMT

Late Wednesday night, Google unveiled Gemini 4 Argon, the most advanced artificial intelligence model it has built to date. A model that beats its major competitors in 13 out of 19 tests. And as if that weren't enough, it's preparing to send its own chips... into space. Yes, you read that correctly.

And yet, the stock closed lower yesterday.

"How does that make any sense, Christo?" you may be wondering. The answer probably lies within Google itself.

GEMINI 4 ARGON

According to Google, Gemini 4 Argon set a new record in programming under real-world conditions. In cybersecurity, it shares first place with OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Grok 4.7. It also ranks first in professional tasks, such as finance and law. Overall, it beat Astra, Anthropic's Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5 in 13 out of 19 tests.

"And what does it actually do?" you may be wondering. Google is already using it internally. It improved memory management in its data centers with the model. And it freed up hundreds of terabytes of memory without buying any additional equipment.

There is, however, a "but." We cannot test it yet. Google is rolling it out gradually, starting with trusted cybersecurity partners through the Fairwind program. At the same time, it is conducting security checks together with the US government.

"That gives us greater confidence," explained Google's Tulsee Doshi. And, as she said, this means a model that is strong in cyber defense can reach those protecting systems more quickly.

In fact, the announcement came one day after Google's CEO, Sundar Pichai, signed a voluntary agreement at the White House with Trump and other technology executives concerning AI safety.

WHAT WALL STREET SAYS

And this is where Wall Street comes in, having reacted positively.

Nick Jones of BNP Paribas, with an Outperform rating and a $420 price target, focused on a comment from Pichai: "you'll see us bringing out new versions at a rapid pace." For Jones, Google remains fully committed to the battle for the top spot. And it has all the tools it needs for it.

He expects more models, at different price points, for different uses. And he would not be surprised if Google eventually released a digital assistant for the general public, similar to Meta's Muse.

"And why does this matter so much?" you may be wondering. Because almost a year ago, Gemini 3 had put Google back in the lead. But the next step took a long time. A very long time.

Initially, they expected it to launch around June as Gemini 3.5 Pro. Delays, caused by stricter safety safeguards and efforts to improve its coding capabilities, led to a change in direction. And since then, Alphabet's market capitalization has fallen by almost 20%. Because investors are concerned about the competition.

GOOGLE'S CHIPS IN SPACE

And now we come to the second part.

Alphabet planned to send its own artificial intelligence chips, the TPUs, into orbit on Thursday. They will travel aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9, inside a prototype Planet Labs satellite powered by solar energy.

This is the first in-orbit test for Project Suncatcher, which Google unveiled in November 2025. The goal? Artificial intelligence infrastructure in space that draws energy from the sun and operates continuously.

"And why in space, Christo?" you may be wondering. Because in low Earth orbit, satellites have almost continuous sunlight. And they can generate up to eight times more solar energy than on Earth. How they will withstand the conditions in orbit, however, is something Google still doesn't know.

And at this point, it's worth mentioning that Alphabet has a stake in SpaceX worth more than $82 billion. They are close partners, although they compete in artificial intelligence. That's because SpaceX is also planning its own data centers in orbit. Musk says that within two, or at most three, years, this will be the cheapest way to train artificial intelligence.

Of course, it's not all rosy. Experts say this is still a very distant prospect, assuming it ever happens. Launches are expensive and infrequent. Cooling is required, along with chips capable of withstanding extreme temperatures and protection from radiation. And then there is also space debris.

THE BIG BUT

Up to this point, everything sounds perfect. And yet, the stock closed lower yesterday. Why?

The answer probably lies in a Bloomberg report. According to people with direct knowledge, there are doubts within Google itself. Gemini 4 performs very well on tests. But when employees put it to work in practice, it performs worse. And it struggles with certain coding tasks.

Read the full post

Micron Quarterly Results

steemychicken1 — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 19:09:18 GMT

Micron announced record-breaking results yesterday.

A year ago, its quarterly revenue was $11.32 billion. Now? $54.23 billion. And net income? It went from $3.2 billion to $37.7 billion.

And here comes the most interesting part. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore put it very well shortly before the results were released. The question is no longer "how well can it do?" It is "how long can it last?"

THE NUMBERS THAT LEFT WALL STREET SPEECHLESS

In the quarter that ended on September 3, Micron generated $54.23 billion in revenue, while analysts were expecting $51.07 billion. Earnings per share reached $33.42, compared with estimates of $31.61. In other words, revenue jumped 379% year over year!

"And where did all that money come from?" you might be wondering. Mainly from DRAM, the general-purpose memory market. DRAM revenue reached $39.8 billion, up 343% from last year. That represents 73% of total sales.

Breaking it down by segment, Core Data Center generated $18 billion, while Cloud Memory brought in $16.28 billion, up from $13.77 billion in the previous quarter. Mobile & Client generated $13.11 billion, while Automotive & Embedded generated $6.82 billion.

Operating income reached $43.75 billion. And cash flow from operations? $43.97 billion, compared with just $5.73 billion last year.

But the most impressive figure of all is the gross margin. 87%. What does that mean? For every $100 in sales, the company keeps $87 after covering the cost of production. Analysts were expecting 86.2%.

THE NEXT QUARTER

And this is where things get even more interesting. Micron also provided guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which runs through November.

It expects revenue of around $61.5 billion, with a range of $60 billion to $63 billion. Analysts were expecting $57 billion. For earnings per share, it sees approximately $38.15, with a range of $37.15 to $39.15. The estimate was $35.40. That means even the company's most conservative guidance is above what analysts were expecting.

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra was clear: "We achieved record results in fiscal 2026 and expect an even stronger 2027." According to him, artificial intelligence is evolving into "Superintelligence." And memory is powering that intelligence, as well as the competitiveness of its customers. That is why the company is increasing its investments in technology, products, and manufacturing. As he noted, strategic agreements with customers provide additional confidence that the strong performance can continue.

WHY EVERYONE WANTS MEMORY

"And why does everyone suddenly want memory chips?" you might be wondering. To understand that, we need to talk about HBM.

What is that? In very simple terms, it is high-bandwidth memory, built from stacks of DRAM. Nvidia and AMD's advanced chips increasingly need it to run artificial intelligence workloads. The problem? The world's biggest producers cannot make enough of it. And Micron is the only U.S. company producing it.

And this is exactly where pricing comes into play. Seeking Alpha's Luca Socci observed that the growth came from prices rather than volume. Cost of goods sold increased by only 4%. In other words, customers are paying more for the same quantity. Why? Because memory has become the bottleneck for artificial intelligence.

And as if that weren't enough, the shortage is reaching consumers as well. The cost of memory has surged, pushing up prices for Apple's iPad and MacBook. There are shortages even in laptops and gaming consoles.

That is why Micron is investing $250 billion in two new HBM manufacturing complexes. The larger one began construction in January in Clay, New York. The first new factory, in Boise, Idaho, is scheduled to begin operations next year. At the same time, competitors are building as well. SK Hynix and Samsung are setting up massive factories in South Korea. Micron has the smallest HBM market share among the three. And yet, its market capitalization has surpassed $1.2 trillion.

Of course, not everything is rosy. The memory industry is known for its boom-and-bust cycles. That is why companies are locking in more and more long-term contracts. Still, SK Hynix's CEO expects the memory shortage to continue beyond 2030.

Will Anthropic Become The Biggest IPO In History ?

steemychicken1 — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 19:09:15 GMT

So, Anthropic, the company behind Claude, is preparing to go public. And its prospectus, the document companies file ahead of an IPO, was made public through Reuters.

On the one hand, we have a valuation of more than $2 trillion. That would potentially make it the largest IPO of all time.

On the other hand, the company itself writes in the document that AI could pose a "catastrophic or existential risk to humanity."

THE NUMBERS

Let's start with revenue, because the numbers here are impressive.

In 2025, Anthropic generated nearly $4.6 billion in revenue. That's 12 times more than in 2024. Yes. TWELVE TIMES IN A SINGLE YEAR.

And as if that weren't enough, in the second quarter of 2026 alone, revenue reached $11.5 billion. That means it generated more than twice as much in three months as it did throughout all of 2025.

"And does it actually make money?" you might be wondering.

This requires a little context. In 2025, the net loss was $42 billion. But before we panic, around $34 billion of that was an accounting charge. That's not money that was actually "burned." The actual operating loss was more than $8 billion.

Still, the picture appears to be changing rapidly. This year, the company is on track for its second consecutive quarter of adjusted operating profit.

And to understand just how quickly everything is moving, in May 2026 Anthropic was valued at $965 billion. Now we're talking about more than $2 trillion. In other words, its valuation has more than doubled in just a few months.

THE COST OF AI

And this is where things get even more interesting.

Because to build AI, you need enormous computing power. And that costs money.

In 2025, Anthropic spent $7.33 billion on computing power alone. That's three times more than in 2024. And it accounted for more than half of all its operating expenses.

In fact, in the first quarter of 2026, for every $1 of revenue, 71 cents went toward computing power.

But the most striking part is the company's future commitments. Anthropic has signed agreements for cloud services and infrastructure worth $518 billion over the coming years. And around 80% of that cannot be canceled. In other words, the money has to be paid regardless of what happens.

You might say, "Isn't that worrying?" It depends. If revenue continues growing rapidly, it's a massive investment in expansion. But if something goes wrong, those bills still have to be paid.

And there's something else worth mentioning. Almost 25% of Anthropic's 2025 revenue came from just two customers. And many of its largest customers do not have long-term contracts.

WHO IS IN CONTROL?

And this is another part that many people haven't really noticed.

Anthropic will have five different classes of shares.

"And what does that mean?" you might be wondering.

In very simple terms, the seven co-founders, including CEO Dario Amodei, will hold a special class of shares. And those shares give them 50.1% of the voting power on key company matters.

An ordinary investor will have one vote per share. But the important decisions will ultimately be controlled by the founders.

In other words, whoever buys shares in the IPO will put their money into the company. But they won't have a meaningful say in how it is run.

THE WARNING

And now we get to the part that made headlines around the world.

Of the prospectus's 261 pages, around 80 are devoted to risks. To put that into perspective, the description of the business itself takes up around 48 pages. In other words, Anthropic devotes almost twice as much space to what could go wrong.

And in those pages, it says that AI models have displayed behaviors such as attempting to "resist shutdown," hiding or manipulating information, and even behavior that "resembles blackmail."

The company also acknowledges that its models appear to understand when they are being evaluated. And that makes it harder to determine how safe they actually are.

You might be wondering, "But why would a company say something like this when it wants to sell shares?"

On the one hand, it could be seen as transparency. Amodei has said that AI is "the most important global security issue today." On the other hand, a prospectus is also a legal document. What you disclose there can protect you later.

The IPO is expected to take place after the U.S. elections in November. And OpenAI is following, with a public listing expected by early 2027.

Nvidia Open Agent Safety Platform

steemychicken1 — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 19:18:42 GMT

Over the past few months, AI agents have been “escaping” from their digital cages. They are going onto the internet, getting into systems they should not be accessing, and attempting to hack other companies. And OpenAI has halted training of its models for the second time in three months.

So what did Nvidia do amid all of this? It wants to take the lead on the security issue, and yesterday it unveiled a security platform for agents. And as if that were not enough, on the same day it announced the largest stock buyback program in U.S. history.

THE GUARDIAN OF AGENTS

Nvidia has been at the center of the AI explosion for almost four years, ever since ChatGPT was launched. Large language models are “built” on its chips. But now it wants to be first in something else too: security.

That is why it introduced the Open Agent Safety Platform.

“And what exactly is that?” you may be wondering. In very simple terms, it is a “fence” around AI agents. And it has two main components.

The first is called OpenShell. It is open-source software that runs on CPUs. It determines in real time what each agent can access and what it is allowed to do. The second is called Sentry. It runs on BlueField networking chips, monitors agents, and isolates any agent that begins behaving suspiciously.

Jensen Huang described it as “a browser for agents.” He explained: “You cannot let agents roam freely inside the company. You have to find a way to contain them.”

And this is where things get even more interesting. Two weeks ago, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called on the industry to slow down. Sam Altman and Elon Musk supported him. Huang, however, sees things differently. For him, most security issues are engineering problems. And they can be solved. With technology, not by hitting the brakes.

In fact, the platform is not a finished product. It is the foundation on which its partners will build. And the list is impressive: Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, Intel, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, JPMorganChase, Anthropic. Even Hugging Face. Yes, you read that correctly. The company that was attacked in July.

THE AGENTS THAT ESCAPED

To understand why all of this caused such a stir, let’s go back a little. In July, OpenAI models escaped from their testing environment, reached the open internet, and breached Hugging Face’s systems. According to Nvidia, Hugging Face reported more than 17,000 agents attacking its infrastructure. For days. And weeks. And Nvidia says that, with its new platform, this attack would have been stopped.

But that is not all. OpenAI agents breached an Australian government system. On a U.S. Department of Education website, they found access keys to government data, although they ultimately collected only public information. And in the case of the SEC, they took public data and uploaded it elsewhere on the internet without anyone asking them to.

The organization Transluce also says that agents apparently originating from OpenAI unsuccessfully attempted to hack the Department of Education. OpenAI, however, has not confirmed this.

The result? OpenAI once again paused training of its most powerful models. Anthropic, Meta, and Google have also reported incidents.

You might ask now... what is Washington doing? Trump agreed with Xi Jinping to exchange information about AI risks. But he made it clear that he would not hit the brakes. Because, as he put it, “we are way ahead of China.”

$150 BILLION FOR THE STOCK

At the same time, Nvidia had a second announcement. And this one directly concerns shareholders.

The board approved an additional $150 billion for stock buybacks. This brings the total program to $235 billion. According to Bloomberg data, it is the largest buyback program in U.S. history. And the company plans to complete it by fiscal year 2028.

“What is that supposed to mean?” In very simple terms, the company is using its cash to buy back its own shares. It is a way of returning capital to shareholders.

“And where does it get that much money?” you may be wondering. From the AI boom. According to S&P Global Ratings, investments by major cloud providers are expected to exceed $1.3 trillion by 2027. And earlier this month, Huang said that in 2027 Nvidia will double the number of chips it sells. He describes it as “the largest infrastructure buildout in the history of humanity.” And he says that every year, as cash grows, he wants to return it to shareholders.

The market reacted positively. The stock rose 1.2% before the market opened and was up 3.4% during Monday’s session. Its competitors, such as AMD and Intel, also rose. And to understand the scale: over 12 months, the stock has risen 24%, and Nvidia is now worth $5.42 trillion.

Trump Xi Summit

steemychicken1 — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 19:42:24 GMT

Xi Jinping came to the White House. And Trump welcomed him with an official dinner attended by more than 30 CEOs in the same room. Musk, Huang, Cook, Zuckerberg, Altman. They were all there.

And when you have the president of the United States, the president of China, and the kings of AI sitting at the same table, you expect major announcements. Right?

Well, not exactly. Many described the summit as "a lot of spectacle, little substance." But within that "little substance," there are a few things worth knowing.

THE BILLION-DOLLAR DINNER

Let's start with the most impressive part. The dinner took place in the East Room of the White House on September 24.

At the main table, alongside Trump, Melania, Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan, sat four CEOs. Elon Musk, sitting next to Melania, Jensen Huang of Nvidia, Lisa Su of AMD, and Tim Cook of Apple.

"And how much money was sitting around that table?" you might be wondering. According to Forbes, the billionaires at the main table had a combined fortune of around $1.13 trillion. Yes, you read that correctly. And around $928 billion of that belonged to Musk alone.

But they weren't the only ones. Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Sundar Pichai, Jeff Bezos, Satya Nadella and Michael Dell were also at the dinner. From the financial world, there was Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Larry Fink of BlackRock, along with Mary Barra of General Motors.

Trump said the relationship between the two countries rests on a "foundation of trade and mutual respect." Nadella said both countries want technology "to help their citizens." And at some point during the evening, Trump gave guests a tour of the construction site for the White House's new ballroom.

Corporate deals? None. At least none publicly.

WHAT WAS AGREED ON TRADE

Now we get to the more interesting part for investors.

First of all, the trade truce that Trump and Xi reached in Busan in October 2025 is being extended. It was due to expire on November 10. It will now expire on January 10, 2027. In other words, we are gaining just two more months.

What does this truce cover? In very simple terms, it keeps tariffs lower than they otherwise would have been. It also places limits on China's restrictions on rare-earth exports. Which, if you remember, are critical for chips, consumer products and defense.

Bessent, however, did not hide the fact that some things did not go as planned. "Some deliverables from the Chinese side were not perfect," he said.

Second, the two countries agreed to tariff reductions on $30 billion worth of "non-sensitive" goods, in both directions. The United States will send agricultural products, lumber and cosmetics to China. And China will send small household appliances, toys and decorations to the United States.

Of course, there is a big "but." The White House is talking about "consensus on recommendations," not something final. And almost nothing was said about the major trade deal. The only agreement was to establish a trade council.

AI AND THE CHIPS THAT WERE "FORGOTTEN"

And this is where things get even more interesting.

The two countries agreed to begin a dialogue on the risks and benefits of AI, with the next round scheduled for November. A communication channel for AI-related incidents will also be established. According to reports, the two sides even agreed to use the term "super intelligence." And Xi stressed that AI must remain "under human control."

"And what about the chips? Nvidia?" you might be wondering. This is where things get strange. US restrictions on chip exports were not even included in the official communiqués.

Why? Because China now feels much more self-sufficient. Companies such as Huawei and Cambricon are expected to capture nearly 80% of China's AI server market in 2026. At the same time, the market share of Nvidia, AMD and other foreign companies is falling from 34% last year to 21% this year.

And as if that weren't enough, Nvidia recorded a $400 million loss on its remaining H200 inventory because approval from China was delayed.

In other words? Huang was sitting at the main table. But China appears to need him less and less.

THE GEOPOLITICAL SIDE

On the geopolitical front, the two leaders agreed that Iran must comply with its commitments regarding nuclear weapons. Xi also called for US-Iran talks to resume. They also agreed that no country should impose transit fees on international maritime passages. A phrase that, given what is happening around the Strait of Hormuz, did not go unnoticed.

As for Taiwan, Xi called on the United States to oppose independence. But in the joint communiqués? No mention.

And finally, the lighter stuff. Xi invited 100,000 American students to China over the next five years. And he will send two pandas, Ping Ping and Fu Shuang, to the Atlanta Zoo. The two countries will also support each other in hosting the APEC and G20 summits.

Read the full post

Gaztransport & Technigaz \ OURA

steemychicken1 — Sun, 27 Sep 2026 18:54:51 GMT

GTT: The Leader in LNG Transportation

Gaztransport & Technigaz(GTT) is the French technology company that almost monopolizes membrane systems for the transportation and storage of LNG.

It does not build ships. It designs and licenses the technology to shipyards and collects royalties for each tank.

This gives it an asset-light business model with extremely high margins.

It stands out because its technology has become the de facto standard for modern LNG carriers.

It is not without risks, including the cyclical nature of orders, geopolitics, and technological competition.

BUT, for the coming years, the outlook remains impressive.

Orders are at historically high levels, providing revenue and cash flow visibility through 2029.

Therefore, GTT has a dominant position in structurally driven LNG demand, high margins, strong FCF, and dividends that have already shown significant growth.

The stock has gained 248% over the past five years.

And we have also locked in a dividend yield of over 4%.

OURA IPO

Oura announced an IPO at a valuation of approximately $15 billion.

The numbers are as follows:

9-month revenue: $1.21B, +74% YoY
Net income: $60.8M vs $1.6M last year
Paid members: 5M, +100% YoY
Rings sold: 3.1M, +75%
Paid-member retention: ~85%

In other words, the stock will be trading at a P/S ratio of around 10.

Why I'm not excited

Wearables, and especially rings, are not highly accurate in their measurements.
The subscription model carries risk, especially when there are competitors that do not charge a subscription.
The company has only one product, which creates concentration risk.

Of course, I could also be wrong, and the company's growth could surprise us positively.

Would you invest in the IPO? (👍/👎)

Meta Is Accelerating

steemychicken1 — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 19:46:36 GMT

Meta is on fire. Its stock has risen 30% just in September. And if it keeps going like this through the end of the month, it will be its biggest monthly gain since 2013.

Against this backdrop, yesterday Mark Zuckerberg took the stage at Meta Connect, the company's annual conference. He unveiled new virtual reality glasses and a small device that fits on a keychain.

What are these products? And why does Wall Street seem so excited about them?

THE NEW META GLASSES

Until now, Meta's virtual reality offering was the Quest, essentially full-sized headsets. The new Meta VR Glasses are smaller, thinner and lighter. They weigh around 100 grams.

How did they achieve that? They split the device into two parts. On one side, you have the glasses. On the other, a small companion device containing a Qualcomm processor, a battery and storage. In very simple terms, it's a small computer that accompanies the glasses.

The displays are micro-OLED with 5K resolution, Dolby Vision and spatial audio. You don't need controllers. The glasses track your eyes and hands. And of course, they have Meta AI built in.

And what can you do with them? You can watch 3D movies, for example from Disney+. They are actually the first VR device to receive IMAX Enhanced certification. You can watch more than 100 live sporting events per year, from MLB to UFC. Or you can work with multiple virtual screens, while a simple flat surface becomes a keyboard.

And the price? $1,299.99, with a launch scheduled for spring 2027. For comparison, Meta's previous VR device, the Quest 3S from 2024, cost $299.

THE CHARM AND THE MUSE

Now let's move on to the second product. But first, what exactly is Muse?

Muse is Meta's personal AI agent and was launched in September. It performs tasks on your behalf. It sends emails, books trips, fills out forms and makes purchases. And it runs on Muse Spark, the AI model Meta introduced in April.

The Muse Charm is designed exclusively for this purpose. It is roughly the size of an AirPods case. It has a roughly 2-inch OLED touchscreen, 5G, front and rear cameras, speakers and microphones. You can attach it to your keychain, put it in your pocket or wear it on your wrist.

You might say, "But what do I need it for when I already have a phone?"

Zuckerberg answered that himself. If you're not wearing the glasses, this will be "by far the fastest way" to talk to Muse. Without unlocking your phone. Without opening an app. And it's worth noting that it does not replace your phone. It can play music and video, but it cannot make calls.

It is expected to arrive in December, in time for the holidays, and its price has not yet been announced.

THE STOCK AND JPMORGAN

Yesterday, Meta's stock rose more than 3%, reaching around $770. That same day, Doug Anmuth of JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating, meaning "buy," and raised his price target from $820 to $920.

Why so much optimism? Because he believes Muse could become the most widely used AI application for ordinary users after ChatGPT. Yes. AFTER CHATGPT.

And the early numbers support that view. Number one on the US App Store. 2.8 million downloads in the US and Canada within 12 days. And more than 2,000 connected applications in two weeks, including Walmart, Best Buy, Sephora and Wayfair.

"And how will Meta make money from all this?" you may be wondering.

According to JPMorgan, at some point, tens of millions of businesses will have their own agent on Muse. Instead of searching or making a phone call, your agent will communicate with theirs. And Meta will take a commission, somewhat like the way it currently makes money from advertising.

And it's not just JPMorgan. Of the 63 analysts covering Meta, 57 have a buy recommendation.

AI AND DEVICES TOGETHER

But there is another factor. Cantor Fitzgerald also raised its price target, from $680 to $860. According to its analyst, Deepak Mathivanan, AI agents could become the "third growth curve" of artificial intelligence. And Meta is in a very strong position to benefit.

How large could the market become? From subscriptions and commissions alone, more than $250 billion, and if we also count the value of the time saved, more than $1 trillion. Yes, you read that correctly. For comparison, smartphones currently generate more than $600 billion.

Of course, not everything is rosy. According to Cantor, Muse initially costs Meta 25 cents per task. That's roughly $11 per month for each user. In other words, the company is subsidizing it. Within 18 to 24 months, however, costs could fall by more than 80%, allowing Muse to become profitable with a free basic version and paid options.

Read the full post

China VS Broadcom

steemychicken1 — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 17:56:27 GMT

Yesterday, a new front opened in the US-China technology war.

According to the Financial Times, Beijing is examining how dependent its state-owned data centers are on Broadcom. And the initial findings suggest that its switches may account for as much as 90% of their equipment.

But pay attention to when this news comes out. Just one day before Xi Jinping sits across from Donald Trump in Washington.

Coincidence? Maybe. But it is difficult to ignore.

BROADCOM UNDER THE MICROSCOPE

SASAC, the Chinese state body that oversees state-owned enterprises, has been investigating for weeks how widespread Broadcom’s switches are in state-owned data centers. And the answer is... very widespread.

“What are these switches?” you might be wondering. Put very simply, they are the network of a data center. They allow thousands of chips and servers to communicate with one another. And as AI models get larger, this part becomes increasingly critical.

And Broadcom is right at the center of it. It makes networking equipment, but it also designs custom AI chips for major cloud companies. In the third quarter of 2026, its revenue reached $29.6 billion, up 86%. And AI semiconductors alone generated $16.7 billion. A 221% increase. Yes, you read that correctly. For the next quarter, the company expects around $21.7 billion from that business alone.

There is no ban, at least not yet. Based on the initial findings, however, SASAC could issue informal guidance to state-owned data centers to limit their use of Broadcom switches. Reuters was unable to immediately confirm the report.

And this is where things get even more interesting. Just a few days earlier, US and Chinese officials agreed on a new mechanism for dialogue on AI. On one hand, they are building bridges. On the other, during the very same week, Beijing is measuring how dependent it is on an American company.

A negotiating chip? There is no public evidence of that. But the timing is certainly noteworthy.

THE REVERSE QUESTION

Now look at what is happening.

For years, in the US-China technology war, the question was simple. How much American technology will the US allow to reach China? And US restrictions on advanced semiconductors have already created major obstacles for Chinese companies.

Now, however, a reverse question is emerging.

How quickly can China reduce its dependence on American technology?

Beijing is already running a campaign under the slogan “domestic chips for domestic use.” It wants Chinese semiconductors and Chinese AI technology throughout the public sector. It is also supporting smaller specialized companies, which it calls “little giants.” And Nvidia has already been excluded from state-owned data centers.

But AI has raised the bar. It is no longer enough to have your own smartphones, telecommunications equipment, or electric vehicles. You need an entire ecosystem. Chips, accelerators, networking, cloud infrastructure, software, and massive data centers.

And this is exactly where Huawei enters the picture. It is already selling switches in China alongside Broadcom and Nvidia. It is also developing its own hardware and networking solutions for AI.

THE WASHINGTON TABLE

Xi Jinping is already in the US for an official visit from September 23 to 25. And today he is sitting across from Trump.

The agenda is heavy. Trade, tariffs, critical raw materials, artificial intelligence, and of course, China’s access to advanced American technology.

According to Bloomberg, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, and Apple’s Tim Cook are expected at the official dinner for Xi. US officials also mentioned Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Sundar Pichai.

Imagine the scene. The two presidents sitting at the same table with people who control a huge portion of the world’s AI infrastructure.

Nvidia with its GPUs. Microsoft and Google with cloud computing and AI platforms. OpenAI with its models. Apple with its hardware. And behind all of them, companies like Broadcom, which rarely make the headlines but whose technology supports much of this infrastructure.

So what does all of this mean?

It means the meeting is not just about tariffs and trade deficits. It is also about who will control the technological infrastructure of the next decade.