Posts from @tobetada

Hive Predict: The Polymarket for Hive

tobetada — Wed, 21 Oct 2026 14:01:00 GMT

Recently I stumbled upon @hivepredict

It's not every day that one finds a gem in Hive's ecosystem, but I think this one deserves more attention. https://hivepredict.app essentially is a betting platform similar to Polymarket on which we can bet on an outcome and place Hive as collateral. A simple idea, but as we have seen elsewhere it has a lot of potential.

Immediately upon using the site, it struck me how polished everything felt. Finally an app where everything works and the UI is streamlined.

Here is an example:

We can see all relevant information on the spot like, the question, the prize pool, the number of bettors, the current as well as the target price etc. To place a bet we simply have to click on which side we favor and enter the amount of Hive we are willing to bet. We can then directly see how much our winning would be and how much we would make a profit. In the graph we can also see how this market has evolved, displaying the chances on what betters think the outcome will be.

Creating a bet

It's also very easy to create a betting market. First, decide on the general topic (for now there are mostly sports and crypto bets). Then we can enter all of the details:

On page 2 we can decide on which token we want to use (Hive or HBD), the stake cap (how much total can be in the pool) and the opening bet (min. is 1 Hive).

After the market has been successfully created, we come back to the landing page we know from before. Since this bet was created last week, you will probably have guessed that I lost this bet since Hive didn't reach >= 6 cents.

However, I did win the oil bet. Over all it seems that there are quite a number of bets which are "easy" to win when one has a bit of background knowledge.

Conclusion

This app is polished, works flawlessly, is easy to use and it has a great use case. Quite frankly, I am not sure why it hasn't blown up more. But I will be creating some more markets - hope to see you there as well!

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!

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BTC.D Going Up Already?!

tobetada — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 13:01:00 GMT

This is a bit awkward

Why? Because it's possible that the bottom for BTC.D could already be in. While this would be in line of there having been virtually no ALTcoin season, it is a bit shocking to see the ratio still this high. In fact, it has fallen only around 12% from around 66% to 55% in 2025. This year has been virtually flat. This is the same pattern we have seen in the 2021-2022 phase when we actually had an ALT season, but back then the ratio dropped from around 72% to around 40%. Before then, the ratio dropped even more dramatic.

Overall it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that BTC would remain this dominant over the span of decades. While Bitcoin has been the first chain, it surely lacks a lot of other qualities and quantities other chains have introduced. By competition alone, BTC's share should in principal go down over time. But this is not what we are seeing for the time being.

2 Scenarios

I think there will mainly be two scenarios to watch out for. I honestly don't know which one is more likely to happen, but in line with the thoughts just before, I would find it quite awkward for BTC.D to go significantly up again.

the idea here is that dominance will go up to around 64% again thereby hitting the macro resistance in that area. A rejection here would look very similar to 2021 when there was a sort of double peak and a steep drop thereafter. The ratio would go back to around 44% in 2027 and staying in that area for some time.

This one just seems a bit more preposterous.Can BTC.D really go back up into the 80s again?! BTC's MC wold have to get absolutely huge since I don't think that ALTs would just crash when BTC goes up over several years. That alone makes this scenario more unlikely imo.

I guess the critical test will be the 64% area. If dominance breaks it, then there is a strong chance for this scenario to transpire. If so, it would possibly leave the door open to a potentially outrageously large correction aka ALT season sometime in 2028-2029.

Conclusion

We shouldn't be fooled by this chart alone when we want to evaluate the potential of ALTs or the performance of BTC. This is, after all, just a ratio between the two. Even in scenario A, we could get a very strong ALT rally when the MC of everything is just going up. I think the bottom line, however, is that the whole market sentiment has shifted more positive again. The chance is high that the valuation of many projects will go up from here.

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!

RUNE: $4 Incoming

tobetada — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 13:00:00 GMT

RUNE seems to be making a come back

For anyone who has been hodling RUNE for the past years it's been a roller coaster ride. The debt implosion and hack over the last few years has made its price come tumbling down. But somehow the chain is still holding and I think the reason is actually quite simple: RUNE still has a use case - and its value has become increasingly more obvious to see in a time where control and centralization have grown.

RUNE is permissionless. RUNE is decentralized. And on top of that it features native asset swaps across blockchains.

All of this has become increasingly important when we see CEX gatekeepers trying to snatch a bigger piece of the liquidity pie only to vault it in KYC zones. RUNE is also one of the few remaining projects that carries the torch of the cypherpunk spirit which used to prevail in crypto projects. We don't bow to banks and middle men and we also do not block transactions when some do not see them fit. This of course has many ramifications and not all of them are perhaps always "good" or "fair". But this is the tradeoff for a permissionless economy.

TA

In my last post about RUNE, I gave an optimistic outlook which seems to have been verified over the last few weeks.

Personally, I think RUNE will revisit the $3-$4 range very soon. The more difficult question to me is whether this would already be a top signal or the first move to higher highs.

Here is the chart from back then:

https://images.hive.blog/1536x0/https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/Eo4JkCmxtsaHyar5ksYTACCSroZVjWFWyTHZcePTBS1xZFzGJbSwHr1JUV5oa4sykhN.png

Here is an update:

It seems very clear where price could be heading. The next obvious resistance is in the $3-$5 range depending on how fast price could head back up there. A very similar setup was seen in 2023 when price also broke out of a year long resistance. Together with the fact that RUNE likes to move in a 3 wave pattern, I would say that the chances for a revisit in that area is very high.

As pointed out earlier, the bigger question and uncertainty to me is whether that will remain a top or perhaps just the first leg to higher highs. In any case, it is also very likely that we will see a longer consolidation phase after such a run up. In the best case scenario, I think RUNE should still have some more momentum to reach a new ATH in the coming years, since the end of this cycle will probably be in 2028-2029.

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!

Hive: 20 cents incoming?

tobetada — Sat, 03 Oct 2026 13:07:00 GMT

Looking Good So Far

In my last post about Hive, it looked as if Hive was about to make a bigger move after breaking the 1.5 year long resistance. Here is the chart from back then again (note that price is in KRW):

https://images.hive.blog/1536x0/https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/23tcNRWGriLd5YJS53FVan8uaVzmmf1T81cVrnkP4fdaCu7o32YTWQaAdSLgqwEnDS1ni.png

Around 3 weeks later, we now have the confirmation that this seems to be part of a longer uptrend movement. First, price has printed several green weekly candles and second, volume has risen significantly as well. Since this chart is from Upbit, the weekly volume candles carry around 500M Hive each (!).

So, if this is part of a trend reversal: what's next?

I guess my main premise is that we might see a repeat of the 2020-2021 movement. The set up is very similar as we have seen a dramatic price correction - a bottom - as well as the beginning of a stable uptrend. This also happened after breaking through a long resistance trend line.

If so, I think it is plausible to assume that we will get a very good run taking us to the next bigger resistance. The obvious target for such a resistance is the ~20 cents area. First, this is where we see a trend line coming from the previous highs, second, there is a trend line which used to act as a support from the previous lows. Both also align in Q1 of 2027 - which has often been a strong period for Hive. A run up should also be confirmed from the higher volume candles.

As you can see, this would also suggest that price would fall sharply back to perhaps under 10 cents again. Unfortunately, that is just the "nature" of Hive; it is very volatile and strong impulse waves are always followed by stark corrections.

However, should price continue to pick up in the coming weeks, this might be a fantastic opportunity to unstake/sell Hive at the top before buying it back at the lows. Personally, I will start to unstake some Hive should this pattern remain confirmed.

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!

SPS On An Uptrend

tobetada — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 14:00:00 GMT

Trend change?

In my last post about SPS, I spoke about the double resistance at 0.4 cents. I also gave a cautiously optimistic outlook for a more bullish scenario:

However, should the 0.4 cents resistances be broken, I would expect a (short lived?) explosive movement to the upside.

https://images.hive.blog/1536x0/https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/Eo4JhGpWvok1HpCMDPWxk645UwyWZJxgWASCFmo2jmYdnW6wkmcfcmyvrdpYtJtxQdi.png

As of today, the 0.4 cents resistance has been broken on the weekly chart. While we still have to await a confirmation from a green weekly candle, it seems like we can turn a bit more optimistic for the mid term SPS trend.

Since the lows, SPS has made a 60-70% gain and sits now just above the two major resistances. As pointed out before, I think a confirmation will make it very possible for SPS to reach 0.07 cents in the near term. This would imply a 1.6x from the lows.

A possible future trend could look like this: A revisit to the 0.7 cents area in the next few weeks or months, followed by a correction taking the price back to the 0.5 cents area. If momentum holds, I think price could push up to the 1.3 cents area where price will meet a horizontal resistance. After this, a fall back to a possibly new supporting trend line at around 0.6-0.7 cents (thin red line).

SPS hodlers have had it tough. Price has been stuck in a 4 year down trend and we have yet to see a true macro reversal. This will be confirmed, should price make a higher low on the weekly/monthly chart. However, for the short to mid term I think price could develop positively, but watch out for the 0.7 and 1.3 resistances.

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!

HBD Managed To Stay Afloat

tobetada — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 18:30:36 GMT

Has The Bear Market Ended?

If the bear market is indeed already over, then HBD managed to just barely stay under the 30% debt limit. As a result, HBD has been more or less stable over the last year - at least never significantly falling long under its $1 peg. This is good news, since it means that HBD has managed to stay at peg for two consecutive bear markets. The last time it did fall below peg was as SBD before the hard fork. Since then we got several changes to its tokenomics which so far have proven to be beneficial. However, getting as close as 1% to the crucial 30% debt limit has been a very close call and it certainly could have gone the other way. In other words, we got lucky... A depegged HBD would have entailed all sorts of problems. For now at least, it seems we are out of the woods. I do not think that Hive will fall below the current support price of around 3.5 cents. ALTs have finally broken out of a multi year long down trend.

We can also see that the HBD savings share is at around 70% and has declined over the last year. In late 2025 we had around 9M HBD in savings at around 15% interest. This has now come down to around 6.3M and is more sustainable with 10% interest.

It's good that interest has come down over the last years. Hive's price simply can't handle an inflated HBD supply at the moment. Of course this means that HBD cannot really grow and get adopted. It's MC is way too low for that. I guess a possibility is that it could grow with an increase in Hive's price. But that would have to be sustainably well above 30-50 cents imo.

Conclusion

Seems like we got lucky... and that isn't really how we wanted this to play out. But it seems we will get another chance to add more value to our chain until the next bear market strikes. Personally, I would like to see HBD's interest to go up again once the debt ratio is back under 10% again. It's reputation as a safe and valuable stable coin still hasn't caught on in the crypto sphere. Although I think with each passing year that chance should in theory grow...

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!

Hive Debt Ratio Soon Back Under 20%?

tobetada — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 18:43:45 GMT

A turn around?

Back in June it didn't look pretty. Hive's price was making new lower lows every week and the debt ratio was climbing as a result. We had and still have a Hive support price in the 3-4 cent price level range and we were getting very close to breaking it. A year ago or so, it seemed preposterous for Hive to ever head this low, but this year we found out that it really could fall this low...

However, just some weeks later it seems that we may have finally reached the bottom. Since then, price has increased by around 55% and the chart looks like we are in a macro trend reversal. This of course had a very favorable effect on Hive's debt ratio. From almost 30% we are now back down to almost 21%. A steep and quick reversal. Going over 30% would have triggered the hard limit of the hair cut rule. This is something to be avoided since HBD would then most likely depeg from Hive valued at $1. In other words, a collapse of HBD and therefore Hive's tokenmics as a whole. Amazingly, this hasn't happened since Hive's hardfork from Steem. But it's clear that we came very very close to it!

Going back under 20% means that users will once again receive HBD in their post rewards (if they choose to) and Hive can also be converted to HBD again.

While we are not out of the woods so to speak, the chart does look pretty good. We can see that we have now had several weeks of green candles with good volume. If this trend lasts, I think we could soon be back to around 20 cents again.

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!

Has The Hive Run Started?

tobetada — Sun, 13 Sep 2026 16:32:48 GMT

Chart starting to look hot

Hive has finally broken through the 4-5 cents resistance area and the almost 2 year old resistance trend line. I talked about this more in the last post, but here is a small recap:

In my last post: "Can Hive Break the Resistances" I pointed to current break out levels at the 4-5 cents area. Just the night after I posted we got a pump of 25% - and more importantly, good volume with it. On Upbit alone it was close to 470M (!) and coingecko has it at over $30M. Not too bad... Hive once again showcases that it belongs in the big leagues.

This is the chart from back then:

https://images.hive.blog/1536x0/https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/23tcNRWGriLd5YJS53FVan8uaVzmmf1T81cVrnkP4fdaCu7o32YTWQaAdSLgqwEnDS1ni.png

And this is the current chart:

This week Hive maxed out at around 6.5 cents, well above the resistance area - although price is now retesting it and hopefully will turn it into support. Also notice the volume: On Binance alone it was around 150M for 2 consecutive weeks and on Upbit together it was around 1 billion (!) for that time frame. This is definitely a sign that "something" is happening. To me that something is a bottom signal with an uptrend of volume which is what we generally see for when a trend change occurs.

We also got an unusual pump today with it occurring at 12pm whereas these pumps generally happen at 12am. After more than a 30% move up, price is now back at breakout levels - again, the hope is that the macro resistance will turn into a support.

So far the green channel has provided a perfect top indicator (see last post) with the newest wick reaching around 6.5 cents. I am expecting more volatility throughout the next weeks to months and a stronger and more sustainable pump taking us into the two digit area again.

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!

Heads Up! Non-KYC Withdrawals From MEXC Possible Again

tobetada — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT

So... get your coins

Back in April, I noticed that MEXC had introduced mandatory KYC for withdrawals. While this wasn't a surprise since some months before that we got continual KYC "threats" from the site, it was still lame that they just locked people's funds away. But for some reason they have slightly changed how the process works now. Here is how it generally works:

-1- Upon login, you will automatically get directed towards going through the KYC process. Simply cancel that step and you will get redirected to the front page. Now try to withdraw funds.

-2- Click on a link that says something like "cannot verify"

-3- This will take you to this screen:

So, yes your account will be permanently frozen and there is only one week in which you can withdraw your funds. However, there is a caveat: there is an automatic review process in which the AI decides whether you are a "risk account". Should it flag your account, you may still be able to contact customer support, but my hunch is that it will probably not be possible to withdraw your funds without KYCing...

-4- Confirm that you want to "offboard".

In the best case you will regain access to your funds after just a couple of minutes. I got lucky I guess... but not sure which conditions they have set up in order to pass. I suppose it helps if access has been from a consistent IP/Region or if there was mainly spot trading... who knows?

As soon as I got my funds back I reclaimed my 192 Hive and sent them back. Yey!

As pointed out before, there still exists an alternative: XT.com Not sure how long this will last, but I will certainly not leave funds on it for long. Of course in the bigger picture Hive still lacks a liquid Offramp... Unfortunately Altera hasn't really been able to expand on its pools as of now:

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!

Double Resistances for SPS

tobetada — Mon, 07 Sep 2026 13:41:00 GMT

0.4 cents will be tough to break

SPS has been struggling for 4 years so to speak. Ever since its launch the token has been under immense price pressure. The biggest culprit has been inflation and bad tokenomics in my opinion. But the game is still running, which is an amazing feat by itself.

SPS has made a new ATL just recently in July and has been able to recover slightly from those lows. The most positive aspect in this chart I can think of is that the slope of descent has decreased throughout the years. This is evident in the blue support lines at the bottom of the chart. While it is too soon to bet on a reversal, it certainly looks like the chart has found some sort of bottom.

But here's the catch: There are two big resistances at the 4 cents area. One is from the previous bottom support, the other from the trend line connecting previous highs. It will be hard to break these, no doubt!

As you can see, late 2028 might be the next time frame for the next cycle peak (it may also be 2029). So there are 2-3 more years to crawl out of this pit so to speak. Honestly, I think we should be more bearish than bullish on SPS, since SPS just simply hasn't been able to reverse its death spiral. However, should the 4 cents resistances be broken, I would expect a (short lived?) explosive movement to the upside.

In that scenario, 0.7-0.8 cents seems reasonable, if not, 0.2 cents it is...

I am currently out of the loop for the game itself - I am not sure if there is anything big coming up. I suppose if there is not, price will probably break down again. However, if there is anything bigger planned, please feel free to point it out here!

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!